Brexit uncertainty is likely to put the brakes on the UK property market, with transaction volumes potentially falling by up to 20 per cent, experts are forecasting. Housing market pundits remain split over whether or not prices will fall in the long-term.
Some believe the lack of supply of new homes will help to underpin values, while others argue the movement of City high flyers to other financial centres like Paris will result in costs falling.
Some argue the combination of an extremely weak pound and short-term house price falls may lead to more foreign investors seizing the opportunity to buy property in the capital, but others say this will not be enough of an incentive given long-term uncertainty.
The decision to leave the EU will be most keenly felt in the London housing market which is fully valued and already facing headwinds. History shows that external shocks can reduce sales volumes by as much as 20% with sales volumes already down over the last year.
The immediate impact is likely to be a fall in housing turnover and a rapid deceleration in house price growth as buyers adopt a wait and see the short term impact on financial markets and the economy at large.
House price growth is already weak and running in low single digits in central London areas and modest price falls now appear likely in higher value markets as prices adjust in the face of lower sales activity.
Even a sharp fall in the Sterling value is unlikely to attract overseas buyers in the near term.
We still have a huge shortage of houses so I don’t think that house prices will drop to significantly outside of the capital or that people will stop buying or selling any time soon.
As property prices adjust this offers better news for some, but less good for those who have already stretched themselves to buy a home. What we need is for house builders to up their level of building again, although this sector may stay depressed for a little while to come.
House prices may be cooling slightly in the face of geopolitical uncertainty but this is offering bullish buyers opportunities to secure real value. The luxury areas of London’s property market are feeling the acutest drops in house prices but these areas typically have a higher proportion of European buyers meaning exchange rate discounts on property purchases are compensating for any further slowdown.
The City will relocate large numbers of highly paid bankers to Paris, Dublin and the rest of Europe and the loss of these highly paid house buyers and renters can only have a negative effect overall. Add that to the new buy-to-let mortgage interest tax and I see no appeal for speculative house price growth continuing.
Mortgages are now very likely to get more expensive, so if you are looking to buy or remortgage, talk to a mortgage adviser at the earliest opportunity.
Clifford Osborne are Independent Financial Advisors (IFA) based in Eastbourne, East Sussex, offering pension planning advice, mortgage advice and more. You can read our VoucherFor reviews here. Our clients often come from Uckfield, Lewes, Brighton, Tunbridge Wells, Hastings, Bexhill, Newhaven, Seaford, Crowborough and further afield.
